The “China Economic Bulletin: From Recovery to Rebalancing” released by the World Bank on the 23rd predicts that China’s economic growth rate may slow to 2% this year, but it is expected to rebound to 7.9% next year.
The above-mentioned briefing stated that thanks to effective epidemic prevention and control, strong policy measures and strong exports, China’s economy has normalized at a faster than expected rate.
Affected by the epidemic and the global economic downturn, the briefing predicts that China’s economic growth rate may slow to 2% this year, but next year, as consumer and business confidence increases and labor market conditions improve, economic activities will expand to private investment and consumption. Economic growth is expected to rebound to 7.9%.
The briefing stated that even if China’s gross domestic product (GDP) can return to its pre-epidemic level by 2021, it is expected that the external environment will still face challenges.
Rui Ze, director of the World Bank’s China Bureau, pointed out: “The global environment is still highly uncertain, which requires an adaptive policy framework. Premature withdrawal of policy support and excessive tightening may derail the recovery. The withdrawal of financial support should be gradual, but The focus should shift from traditional infrastructure to increasing social spending and green investment.”
The briefing stated that in addition to adopting a flexible and supportive monetary policy, China can also use fiscal space to cope with the downside risks of growth and ensure that the source of demand shifts from public demand to private demand.
The World Bank’s expectations of China’s economic growth are similar to those of some international institutions. Previously, the International Monetary Fund predicted that China will be the only country in the world’s major economies to maintain positive growth this year. It is expected to grow by 1.9% this year and 8.2% next year. The latest forecast of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this month shows that China’s economy next year .The growth rate will reach 8%, and the Eurozone and US economies will grow by 3.6% and 3.2% respectively.